Drednaught0moto

Important

This website is a generative artwork and educational data visualization. It is not financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. It gives the same general information to everyone and is not tailored to anyone’s situation. Nothing in it is an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold Bitcoin or any other asset.

The moods, meters, clock, and floors are an artistic interpretation of historical patterns and public data. They are not predictions, and no outcome is guaranteed. Bitcoin is highly volatile, and you could lose some or all of your money.

The history tests shown here apply today’s rules to past data with the benefit of hindsight. They are not results of actual trading, and past patterns do not guarantee future results.

Data comes from third-party sources that are not affiliated with or endorsing this artwork, and it may be delayed, incomplete, or wrong. The creator makes no guarantee of accuracy and accepts no liability for decisions or losses based on this artwork. The creator may hold Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies.

Do your own research, learn how charts and indicators work, and consult a licensed financial professional before making any investment decision.

What you’re looking at

A quick guide to every word and number on the screen. The sections after it explain how each one is worked out.

The clock

The dial: Bitcoin’s market has moved to a steady beat of 1.914 years (about 700 days). One full turn of the dial is two beats. Each floor has lasted a whole number of beats: 1, 1, 2, 2, and the current floor appears to be heading for 4, which isn’t confirmed yet. What comes after that is unknown.
expand: The top of the dial marks the middle of an expansion: the moment price crosses from one floor into the next, partway through its climb. Not every pass over the top is an expansion; in a longer floor, some are mid-floor beats.
top: 3 o’clock: when the biggest highs of past cycles have tended to happen, about a year after an expansion.
bottom: 6 o’clock: when the deepest lows of past cycles have tended to happen.
rise: 9 o’clock: the climb back up from a bottom toward the next expansion.
The pulsing dot: The small white circle at the tip of the clock’s hand, gently pulsing. It marks where today falls in that rhythm. The short hand points the same way.
“5th halving in about … days”: When new bitcoin supply is next cut in half. Halvings happen every 210,000 blocks, so the block is exact, but the date is an estimate from how fast blocks are arriving, and it sharpens as it gets closer. When one happens, the swarm splits in half for a moment.
“Minting: cheap right now”: How busy the Bitcoin network is, from mempool.space: today’s fee (in sats per virtual byte) placed between the past week’s low and high. Green near the low (a good time to mint or send), amber in the middle, red near the high. It changes minute to minute.
“Near the bottom”: Where the pulsing dot is, in words. “The middle of a possible expansion” means a beat that would carry Bitcoin into the next floor if the pattern holds; “mid-floor beat” means a beat inside a longer floor; “next beat” means the pattern for this floor is unknown. This is timing from past patterns, not a promise of what will happen.

The rings and numbers

Pink ring, Top: Top risk: how much today looks like past cycle highs. The fuller the ring, the more it resembles a top.
Blue ring, Bottom: Bottom risk: how much today looks like past cycle lows.
Gold ring, Pressure: Ceiling pressure: how hard conditions are pressing on the ceiling, the setup for an expansion. “Waiting” means the next ceiling isn’t known yet.
“· 2/3”: How many of the three emotional readings (crowd, holders, new buyers) agree. Shown when they’re available.

The bottom of the screen

The big word: The mood: the emotion the market is showing right now (Denial, Hope, Euphoria and so on). Every mood is described further down.
Date and price: When the reading was taken and Bitcoin’s price in US dollars.
Floor 4, 79% of the way to $132,187: Which level Bitcoin is on, and how far it has climbed from that level’s floor toward its ceiling, measured on a log scale, where each doubling counts the same.
33% below its cycle high: How far price is under the highest price of roughly the last two years.
Crowd: The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, 0 (extreme fear) to 100 (extreme greed): today’s value and its 30-day average.
Holders: NUPL: whether people holding Bitcoin are, on average, sitting on a profit or a loss. The band name (like Optimism–Anxiety) is its standard emotional zone. MVRV is the same measure written another way.
New buyers: The same profit-or-loss measure for people who bought in roughly the last five months: “25% in profit” or “10% underwater.”
Replay its life: Plays Bitcoin’s whole history from 2010, so you can watch each mood, top, bottom and expansion arrive. “Back to live” returns to today.
Speed: How fast the replay plays: medium, slow or fast.
Live / Offline: Which live data reached the piece. Offline means it is showing the last stored prices.

Things you can touch

The swarm: Drag through it with your finger; it parts and swirls back.
The mood word: Tap it for a one-line description of that emotion.
A ring, or its name: Tap it to see what it measures.
The clock: Press and hold to feel the market’s heartbeat. Spin the dial to travel back through time; let go to return to today.
The speaker: Turns sound on or off. Sound starts off; the speaker gently pulses until you try it the first time.
The share arrow: Saves a picture of this moment.
X, YouTube, Suno, Spotify, OBJKT: The artist on each platform. OBJKT shows the art the artist collects.
Tip: Buy the artist a coffee: receiving addresses for Bitcoin, Ethereum and Tezos, each on its own network, with a copy button.
Music: Songs by the artist. Pick one and they play one after another until you stop them, while you explore. A small “now playing” tag at the top opens the player or pauses it. The artwork’s own sound rests while a song plays.

On a computer

Space: Replay its life, or back to live.
← and →: Travel back and forward through time, one month at a time (hold Shift for a year). It returns to today on its own, or press Esc.
Scroll over the clock: Travel through time with the mouse or trackpad.
S, M, T, I, P: Sound, Music, Tip jar, What it feels, and save a picture of this moment.
Esc: Close whatever is open.

Words used throughout

Floor: A price level Bitcoin broke above and now tends to hold as support.
Ceiling: The price level above, where past rallies have stalled. A broken ceiling becomes the next floor.
Expansion: When Bitcoin breaks above a ceiling and holds there for a month, moving up to a new floor.
Cycle high: The highest price in roughly the last two years.
Readings: The three emotional measures: crowd, holders and new buyers.

What it feels

Every floor has lived through the same emotional cycle. This piece reads where Bitcoin is in that cycle and lets the swarm feel it, so you can read the emotion instead of watching the price.

What history shows, using the actual highs and lows, not just monthly opens:

Floor	Top	Fall	Bottom
1	$31.91, Jun 2011: 100% up	−94%	$2.01, 6% up
2	$1,163, Nov 2013: 98% up	−85%	$171.51, 46% up
3	$20,089, Dec 2017: 109% (above the ceiling, then failed)	−84%	$3,191.30, 37% up
4	$68,789.63, Nov 2021: 69% up	−77%	$15,599.05, 1% below the floor
4	$126,198.07, Oct 2025: 98% up	−54% so far	$57,747.77 so far, 61% up

Four of five tops came within about 6% of the ceiling price or broke above it, and failed there. The falls are shrinking: −94%, −85%, −84%, −77%.

The cycle clock. The clock counts beats of 1.914 years (about 700 days). Within a floor, beats alternate: a beat that can mark the middle of an expansion, where price crosses into the next floor, then a bottom beat. The hand shows where now sits in one full turn of two beats (about 3.8 years): the middle of an expansion at the top of the dial, the top midpoint at 3 o’clock, the bottom beat at 6, recovery at 9.

Beat	What happened	Off by
Mar 2013	Expansion through $32	0 mo
Feb 2015	Bottom, $171.51	1 mo
Jan 2017	Expansion through $1,238	4 mo
Dec 2018	Bottom, $3,191.30	0 mo
Nov 2020	Expansion through $16,005	1 mo
Oct 2022	Bottom, $15,599.05	1.5 mo
Sep 2024	Mid-floor beat: floor 4 was 2 beats into an expected 4	–
Jul 2026	Low of $57,747.77 so far	1 mo

Floors last whole beats. Counting the beats each floor lasted gives: 1 (below $1.71), 1 ($1.71–$32), 2 ($32–$1,238), 2 ($1,238–$16,005), and 4 so far expected for $16,005–$132,187. That explains September 2024: floor 4 was only 2 beats in, so it was a mid-floor beat, not a missed expansion. The 4 is not confirmed, and nothing yet says what comes next: 4, 4, 8, 8 again, a reset to 1, 1, or something else. Until a floor’s count is known, the piece treats every other beat as a possible end, and the count can be set under “Finding the next ceiling.”

Tops landed near the midpoint between the middle of an expansion and the next bottom beat (off by −3, 0, +1 and +2 months in 2013, 2017, 2021 and 2025). Until floor 4, every top also came soon after an expansion. As Bitcoin matures that no longer holds: the 2025 top came late in floor 4, years after its expansion, yet right on the clock’s midpoint. So the piece times tops with the clock, not with how recently a floor was broken.

Three emotional readings confirm what the price structure suggests:

Crowd: Crypto Fear & Greed, 30-day average. Hot at 70+, cold at 25 or less.
Holders: NUPL, the profit or loss all coins are sitting on. Hot at 0.6+, cold at 0.1 or less. MVRV is shown beside it, but it is the same measure in different units (MVRV = 1 ÷ (1 − NUPL)), so it is not counted twice.
New buyers: Short-term-holder NUPL, the same measure for coins bought in roughly the last five months. Hot at 0.2+ (new buyers about 25% in profit), cold at −0.2 or less (about 17% underwater).

The meters show how many readings agree, for example “2/3”. Top risk is 30% price structure (high in the floor, at the cycle high), 20% the clock (within about 4 months of the top midpoint) and 50% the readings. Bottom risk is 30% the fall from the cycle high (40–80%), 20% the clock (within about 3 months of a bottom beat) and 50% the readings. Without readings, structure and clock count half each. A bottom counts as confirmed by a fall of 70% or more, by two readings turning cold together, or by one cold reading at a bottom beat.

Thrill: Near the cycle high, no deep fall yet on this floor, top risk under 60%.
Euphoria: Top risk 60% or more. The swarm turns hot and frenzied.
Anxiety: 10–30% below the cycle high, no rebound.
Denial: A rebound of 15%+ before any confirmed bottom.
Panic: 30% or more below the high and still sliding.
Capitulation: Bottom risk 60% or more, or still falling after a confirmed bottom.
Fear: Price dipping just under a floor it had broken (less than 3%): a retest, not a loss.
Grief: A daily close more than 3% below a floor it had broken, or a month closing below it.
Depression: After a confirmed bottom, flat near the low.
Disbelief, Hope, Optimism: Recovering 15%+ off a confirmed bottom: lower, middle, then upper part of the floor. While the crowd is in extreme fear, it stays Disbelief.
Belief: Near the ceiling after a deep fall on this floor, without the timing and emotions of a top: the expansion approach. The ceiling cracks.
Breakthrough: Above the ceiling without the signs of a top; ceiling pressure goes to 100%. A month opening above it makes the old ceiling the new floor.

Ceiling pressure (the gold ring) describes how hard conditions are pressing on the ceiling, the setup for an expansion. It is not a probability. They start from how close price is to the ceiling (from 70% of the way up the floor), then weigh the clock’s nearness to an expansion (within about 6 months), whether the floor has already had its deep fall, and whether emotions are warm rather than hot: crowd 50–72, holders’ NUPL 0.35–0.62, new buyers’ NUPL from 0 to 0.2. High top risk pulls pressure down, because a top and an expansion look alike on price but not in timing or emotion. On price and clock alone, ceiling pressure reached 60% or more only in the months just before each past expansion (within about 4 months, including all of early 2017 and late 2020), never at a top (21–32% at the 2013, 2017 and 2025 tops), and stayed at 0% at the September 2024 expansion that never came, because price was too far below the ceiling. These checks apply today’s rules to past data with the benefit of hindsight. Past patterns do not guarantee future results.

Tested on history, at the real turning points, on price and clock alone: Euphoria at the 2013, 2017, 2021 and 2025 tops; Capitulation or Grief at all four bottoms and at the July 2026 low; Belief at all three clean expansion approaches (January and March 2017, November 2020). It misses the 2011 top, which came before the beat rhythm began. The beat timing is measured to within about a month, and the readings’ thresholds are standard published zones, so nothing here is tuned to fit these few cycles. Three complete cycles is still a small history, and floor 4’s beat count is not yet confirmed. Past patterns do not guarantee future results.

Find the artist

X YouTube Suno Spotify Art I collect (OBJKT)

Settings

Sound: a melody for each mood, and a sound for each event. Off until you turn it on with the speaker button or here; once on, it stays on for your next visits. Motion effects: tilt the phone to look around, shake it to scatter the swarm.

Surprises: hidden moments to discover, collected in the Vault. Ask how I feel, once a day, before showing the mood.

Vibration (haptics) comes with the iPhone app; web pages can’t vibrate an iPhone.

Mood history

Every month since July 2010, colored by its mood. Tap a month to see it.

Finding the next ceiling

Your floors stay exactly as drawn. When a month opens above $132,187.40, it becomes the floor of floor 5 and the next ceiling is “not yet known.” The piece then finds it the way the floors were drawn: a box that contains the fractal, with leeway for extreme wicks.

Estimated zone: A wide guide from two methods (shrinking floor sizes, and the long-run trend at the clock’s next top). Used to place the swarm and to keep a mid-floor top from counting. Never a target.
Forming: Only 8–15 months after an expansion on the clock, with top risk at 60%+, at least 2 of 3 readings hot, and price inside the zone.
Confirmed: After a fall of 40% or more from that high. The ceiling is the highest daily close of the top plus 4%, so wicks may poke through.
Above the expected range: If price runs past the estimated zone, the screen says so, the swarm follows the running high, and a top may form whenever it actually happens, not only 8–15 months after an expansion. The same happens if price climbs to 2.5 times its long-run trend or more.
Reopened: If a month closes above a confirmed ceiling before the floor has had its bottom, it was a mid-floor top, and the search continues.
Next expansion: Only after the floor has had its bottom, only near a beat that can end the floor (4 months before to 6 months after it), and only when a month opens above the ceiling. Ceiling pressure waits until a ceiling is known, and gets no timing boost from mid-floor beats.

Tested on history as if each ceiling were unknown, it found the 2013 and 2017 tops at the right time and the 2025 top as a ceiling. It would have read the 2021 top as a ceiling too, splitting floor 4 into two floors. Two cases are possible but not modeled yet: a parabolic run like 2011, where a whole floor passes in one beat, and a runaway that builds a new base far above the old ceiling. There is only one example of the first and none of the second, so the piece doesn’t guess; your floor and ceiling settings cover them. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Your own level always overrides it:

Your ceiling for the floor above $132,187

Your floor, if Bitcoin builds a new base above $132,187

Beats for the floor above $132,187

Leave this unknown until the pattern is confirmed.

Right now

Every time the piece opens or comes back to the screen, it fetches the price, the latest daily and weekly candles (exact highs and lows, plus any months after the stored table), the Fear & Greed history, NUPL and short-term-holder NUPL, the current Bitcoin block (for the halving countdown) and the network fees (for minting). Price refreshes every minute; the block and fees every 10 minutes; candles and Fear & Greed hourly; holders every four hours (the free data source allows only 15 requests a day). Anything it can’t reach is left out and listed above, never guessed.

Floors: $1.71, $32.01, $1,238.46, $16,005.18, $132,187.40, drawn by the artist. Monthly opens July 2010 to October 2026 from Official Data Foundation; monthly highs and lows from StatMuse (Oct 2024 on); yearly highs and lows from SoFi; 2011 and 2013 extremes are widely reported exchange figures and approximate. Live price from Coinbase, CoinGecko or Kraken; Fear & Greed from alternative.me (daily since February 2018); NUPL and short-term-holder NUPL from bitcoin-data.com (last 4 years). Nothing here predicts; it only follows.

Music

Tip jar

The Vault

This is an artwork, not a forecast.